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Corn+Soybean Digest

Brock Online Notes

Monday morning's USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks and Small Grains Summary reports appeared to contain bullish news for the wheat market, especially for spring wheat, as USDA cut its spring wheat crop estimate by over 10%.

The quarterly grain stocks report also contained positive news for the corn market, but was neutral to slightly bearish for the soybean market.

USDA dropped its estimate of spring wheat production to 401.6 million bushels, which was a cut of 46.4 million bushels or 10.4% from its previous estimate.

U.S. all wheat production was cut to 1.625 billion bushels, from a previous estimate of 1.686 billion bushels. That compares with an average trade estimate for 1.663 billion and last year's crop of 1.958 billion.

USDA pegged Sept. 1 wheat stocks at 1.74 billion bushels, 19% below a year earlier and 22 million bushels below the average of pre-report estimates.

Sept. 1 corn stocks were put by USDA at 1.599 billion bushels, versus USDA's previous 2001-2002 ending stocks estimate of 1.631 billion bushels. Sept. 1 corn stocks were 300 million bushels, or 15.8% below a year earlier.

The USDA corn stocks figure was below trade estimates, which ranged from 1.610 billion-1.667 billion bushels.

Sept. 1 soybean stocks were pegged by USDA at 208 million bushels, versus the previous 2001-2002 ending stocks estimate of 195 million bushels. That figure was above trade estimates, which ranged from 157 million to 202 million bushels.

Sept. 1 soybean stocks were still 40 million bushels or 16.1% below a year earlier.

Editors note: Richard Brock, Soybean Digest's Marketing Editor, is president of Brock Associates, a farm market advisory firm, and publisher of The Brock Report.

To see more market perspectives, visit Brock's Web site at www.brockreport.com.

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