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Swift's Market Comments

Slow and steady is best

Slow and steady is best
Turnarounds in the cattle market are exciting, but let's wait on sentiment to catch up with the technical moves.

 

As much as I understand the speed in which most people would like to see cattle prices recover, my analysis suggests that market sentiment needs to be changed as well.

To change sentiment takes time, and a flash higher in price won't do that. Therefore I like the slower move out of here that I perceive will help to turn sentiment.

Nothing has changed in the corn fundamentals that I can tell, so it's likely corn will move back up.

With nearly all contract months, except the two Junes, cattle are within a dollar of one another. I continue to like being long the April contract. At this juncture, I anticipate time to heal a great many wounds. August still lacks a ways from confirming a bottom, with either a close above $114.35 or below $110.25. As this is perceived a major bottom being formed, giving the market this room to convict I perceive as crucial.

This may be tough for some to do, but there remains indecision and I would like to have that cleared up before making decisions on the next most probable move. 

As for feeder cattle, the August contract is currently above the $141.05 level needed to negate a specific wave count. If this materializes, then I will begin to lean toward the wave count currently shown in my "Shootin' the Bull" commentary.

Like the fats, a change in sentiment is needed. The overbearing onslaught of supply issues has pretty much run their route. We all know there are more cattle. What appears to be an issue is that no one anticipates demand to out strip supply. So, that's something to consider.

The significant loss of cattle subjected the market to extensive price movement. As this situation was being addressed, extensive price movement continued to the end of 2015. At the end of 2015 I anticipated the formation of a long, sideways trading range to establish itself. This materialized, but with a more downward slant than sideways. The fats stayed much more sideways than feeders. Still in all, the pattern formed.

Now we need to begin looking for the next most probable move. My analysis suggests to anticipate a trend of trading towards the upper end of the price range at the beginning of the year. I do not anticipate the formation of a bull market, but more of a correction of pessimistic trading that has plagued the market the first half of this year. 

Don't get too excited about corn's big moves down. Corn traders just couldn't stop selling when they got its head down. Today though may change that. With beans strong again and nothing appearing to have changed in the world, so far, I would lean toward anticipating corn spending considerable time attempting to climb back up the price cliff from which it fell.

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