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Swift's Market Comments

Live cattle end the week dead flat

Live cattle end the week dead flat
The lack of price movement in the cattle markets says pessimism is excessive.


September US treasury bonds set a new contract high today as the stock market contracted, but in the live cattle market another week has passed with nothing new having developed.

The June live cattle contract ended at the same price it did last Friday. The inability to close above $123.42 or below $119.70 on the weekly continuation chart leaves the wave count in limbo.

The lack of price movement says pessimism remains excessive, and my fear is that this alone may cause another downturn in futures, while cash remains firm.

The price range for feeder cattle continues contracting in the form of a declining wedge on the chart with no sign of which way it will break out.

Cattle traders remain skeptical as they appear to have no gumption to own inventory. I perceive packers are enjoying this mentality as it allows them to continually own inventory at dollars under cash.

The only change in feeders appears to be that there is no change in the pessimism. With nothing having changed in price, technically or fundamentally, there is little to discuss or anticipate.

The price range continues to contract. Unfortunately, this contraction is in the form of a declining wedge on the chart. Little transpired to suggest the next most probable move. I continue to see nothing bullish or bearish about feeder cattle.

An investment in futures contracts is speculative, involves a high degree of risk and is suitable only for persons who can assume the risk of loss in excess of their margin deposits. You should carefully consider whether futures trading is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience, trading objectives, financial resources and other relevant circumstances. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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