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Swift's Market Comments

A hard down day could lead to a hard up day

A hard down day could lead to a hard up day
Overall nervousness in the equities markets over the possibility Fed might raise rates next week is hurting cattle, too.


Nothing but gold and silver are in the plus column this morning; equities lower, bonds lower, currencies lower, grains and meats all lower as well. This is perceived as a good indication that traders believe the Fed is going to raise rates next Wednesday.

The vocalization of all the Fed's presidents this week and last leads me to perceive this is one of their means of transparency. If they raise rates, they will simply recall their statements last week and this as to their intent to raise rates. If they do not, they will simply fall back on their "data driven" analysis from one report to the next to use as a reason for not raising rates.

The abruptness of today's decline leads me to anticipate a rally just as abrupt. I anticipate a "V" bottom to materialize on the charts.

Either way, the Fed has an out for what they are attempting to achieve ... which in my opinion is the issue at hand: What are they attempting to achieve?

Regardless, with every market except metals down on the day, I perceive cattle are following in unison. Nothing appears to have changed fundamentally or technically at this time.

With the ground gained recently, traders are going to be anxious to see if this ground can be maintained. I anticipate that it will be held.

Bearish traders continue to lose steam in analysis of supply. The sharp price decline recently is perceived to have flushed out heavy cattle and potentially shortened show lists for deliverable cattle two to four weeks out. The abruptness of the decline leads me to anticipate a rally just as abrupt. I anticipate a "V" bottom to materialize on the charts, with the price action in December corn recently possibly a good visual of what to anticipate in cattle.

Feeders have yet to produce the same confirmations as has the fats so far. With most fat contract months having exceeded previous lows, it leads me to anticipate a reversal in the fats. The feeders however remain slightly weaker since few of the months have exceeded a previous low. This goes with the anticipation that on this rally, the fats will lead the way and feeders will lag. This is likely due to there being a short window for which inventory could fall shorter than anticipated going into October.

Even if the feeders don't rally to the same extent of fats, I do anticipate a higher trade and this does not necessarily point toward new contract lows anytime soon. 

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