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Swift's Market Comments

February live cattle near a trigger point

February live cattle near a trigger point
Watch for a trade above $113.22 to confirm this correction is complete and the market is moving higher.


A close above $112.20 February will suggest the correction is complete and to anticipate a trade up to approximately $117.50.

A trade above $113.22 will be needed to confirm the correction is complete.

Not much transpired over the weekend. The increase in exports and decrease in imports continues to put more chinks in the bears’ armor. Consumers appear content with the current price. With pork now easing higher to close the gap between the competing proteins on the grocer's shelf, consumers may wish to revisit the rich taste of beef.

Once the price clears that resistance at $113.22, the next target is resistance at approximately $117.50.

The higher trade is flipping technical indicators higher. The oscillator is now reflecting a higher reading over Friday's. Watch for divergence in this. The slow stochastic is beginning to cross back to the upside as well. With the most recent increases in open interest, and close proximity to the most recent high, some new shorts may be feeling uneasy about their choices.

Recall previous assessments of market conditions. Work done by all up to the August high was perceived as exceptionally beneficial in clearing out inventory and restoring demand. Then, the recognition of heavier cattle to come caused the industry to work quickly in order to eliminate the issue. What took nearly two months to complete, only has taken less than two months to regain all but $2.97, so far. I anticipate by week’s end to narrow that further.

There are two more highs above the August one at $118.05 and $118.25 in May and June of 2016.These two highs would be the viewed as the next points of resistance. A word of caution about these highs: I am anticipating these prices based upon Fibonacci calculations and previous support/resistance levels.

What should be kept on the front burner at all times is that from now until the end of March, the number of cattle on feed is set. Any winter storm has the potential to stall weight gain and further push inventory out into the future to be finished. Therefore, I would not want to be locked into any short position in which a storm of significance were to impact weights.

Most will be in hopes of this rally producing a marketing opportunity for the April and June contract months. I have no quarrels with that, but just don't lock yourself into a position.

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