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Swift's Market Comments

Cattle drifting down against bonds

Cattle drifting down against bonds
Pessimism continues to look like an anchor around the neck of all commodities.


It's hard to place blame when the same thing keeps happening week after week. Well-entrenched pessimism is difficult to break and the trading lower of most commodities this morning doesn't help much.

The rush to own interest rate instruments, while still in the black, appears to be a race. Bonds are up another two full points this morning and equities are softer. This is a down week for cattle via the Moore Research. After this week though, the seasonal tendency picks up higher and remains that way in to August.

I do not perceive hedging at this juncture to be advantageous. However, from a packers standpoint, owning futures at $10-$11 discount appears to be advantageous. 

The August feeder cattle contract pulled back 50% of the up move from contract low to the $145.10 high. With last week's occurrences perceived friendly, this lower trade today doesn't do much one way or the other.

The price range continues to narrow. Until traders are able to push futures to a new contract low or a close above last week's closing high of $144.30, there is nothing to do. I would dare to say that this week's trade will be significant in being able to break this repetitive trend. 

Corn is lower again today. Not only was I proven wrong, but it appears I'm having my face rubbed in it as well.

With the new contract lows eliminating my previous wave counts, focusing on finding an Elliott 5th-wave termination of this decline will be the focus. The literal straight down sell-off makes the wave structures difficult to read. Like a bull market blow-off, this is perceived as a bear market blow-off.

An investment in futures contracts is speculative, involves a high degree of risk and is suitable only for persons who can assume the risk of loss in excess of their margin deposits. You should carefully consider whether futures trading is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience, trading objectives, financial resources and other relevant circumstances. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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