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dry soybeans and pods

Will volatility remain in the soybean market?

Soybean prices have caught a bit of an overall commodity tailwind but the market is still unable to breakout to the upside. Traders are seeing spreads push out to near full-carry and are digesting more talk about increased acres in 2017.

I know we've all heard the bearish talk a million times about more acres, but consider the market is actually trying to tell us we need the additional acres as global demand continues to climb. I'm also wondering if the market isn't trying to tell us that the "commodity bull" might be starting to awaken.

Remember, if demand stays strong and the macro markets turn more positive for the commodity bulls, the overall environment becomes much more ripe for a bullish fire. All we would need is a weather story and I believe the market could quickly add another 50¢ to $1.00 of upside risk premium.

Yes, we could add that type of premium even with ending stocks pushing north of 500 million bushels. I hate to say I'm becoming more bullish on the rally, but the market is clearly trying to tell us something, and with money in full-rotation, I suspect a burning amber could land in a number of areas and spark a fire. My hope is that a portion of that money happens to land in the commodity space in preparation for the political shifts and infrastructure changes that may be right around the next corner.

In particular money could look towards soybeans because there is actually a small story. As both a spec and a producer I'm taking a wait-and-see approach. In other words, I think there's actually more nearby room to the upside, therefore I want to see how some of the non-traditional political headlines impact the market. I'm of the belief the changes and shifts in leadership are carrying much more weight than many traditional traders are giving them credit.

Keep in mind we also have the bull story still brewing in palm and bean oil. As a producer I continue to keep a close eye on the deferred contracts, but have pulled my current sell orders and am going to sit on my hands until I can see a bit further down the road. Getting a bit more bullish...  


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