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Will the USDA lower soybean yields in July supply and demand report?

Will the USDA lower soybean yields in July supply and demand report?

Soybean bears were happy to see overall soybean crop conditions left unchanged at 63% good/excellent. The bulls, however, are arguing there are still an estimated 14 million soybean acres at risk if you include all the unplanted acres (still over 3 million), those planted but not yet emerged, and those acres which are currently in poor/very poor condition. With most of the acres in jeopardy primarily falling in the states of MO, IL, IN and OH, a lot of the upcoming attention will fall on the eastern portion of the belt.

There's a lot of speculation that the USDA will adjust its current 46-bushel-per-acre yield lower in the next report. I'm not arguing that the overall yield number doesn't need to be lower, because it does, but I am warning that the USDA generally doesn't like to adjust the soybean yield a whole lot this early in the game. The last thing they want to be doing is moving it aggressively lower then having to readjust it aggressively higher.  In other words, if you think the national yield will end up being closer to 43 bushels per acre, don't look for the USDA to take the entire bite all at once.

Unfortunately with no real reduction in total harvested acreage as of yet and more than likely only a small step backwards in yield, it might leave some of the bulls with a sour taste and, in turn, give back some of the recent gains. Personally, I don't think the U.S. weather story is behind us as of yet. In fact, I think we are only in the early innings, but I certainly wonder how long the bulls can stay up to bat during each inning. As producers we have to remain patient and not panic on the breaks. Stick with your game plan and reduce risk when the bulls are up to bat!


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