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Will U.S. Soybean production square up the global balance sheet?

TAGS: Soybeans
Will U.S. Soybean production square up the global balance sheet?

Soybeans caught a slight bid Friday morning, but many insiders believe the market now looks poised to test major psychological and technical support in the $10-10.20 range vs. the NOV16 contract.

The bulls continue to argue that as prices move lower we are only encouraging more U.S. exports. The bears are pointing to the fact China is letting the yuan devalue at a fairly rapid pace following the "Brexit" vote. If you remember, the last time China let the yuan massively devalue was back in mid-August of last year and soybean prices tumbled by more than $1 in less than 30 days as macro bulls quickly reversed course.

Also, worth noting is the fact China is having some logistical problems associated with the floods happening along the Yangtze River in central and eastern China. Thoughts are supplies are backing up temporarily in crush facilities as they simply can not move the meal, hence perhaps a bit less demand needed nearby. There's also talk that more U.S. old-crop sales will need to be rolled forward to the new-crop balance sheet as boats seems slow to load and unload.

Here at home the bears continue to argue that U.S. acres will again need to be moved higher in the weeks ahead, simply not buying the latest USDA data sighting +6 million more corn acres and only +1 million more soybean acres than last year. The bears also want to argue a higher yield, perhaps a more accurate number between 47 and 48 bushels per acre.

Like most all bulls, I believe it's way too early to be talking about record U.S. soybean yields. In fact, if Chinese demand stays strong and complications in South America stay constant, the U.S. balance sheet will need record yields to balance the books.

As a producer I want to remain extremely patient in regard to making additional new-crop cash sales. Those who are heavily hedge on the board might want to think about reducing some exposure or preparing for a possible bounce. As a spec I like the thought of dipping a toe in the water on the buy side between $10 and $10.20 per bushel.



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