Corn exports, along with overall demand, remain strong. There is some talk that basis levels in both Ukraine and Argentina are firming as farmer selling starts to taper off. Here at home, there's some talk the basis may weaken between now and the end of March as farmers need to free up cash to pay pre-season bills. After that, the basis may strengthen back up as farmers close the bin doors and focus more heavy attention on early field work and planting.
Technical traders are starting to talk about the fact a major consolidation period, which we are currently enduring, is often followed by a breakout in one direction or the other. As a producer with no old-crop risk remaining and 40% of my new-crop risk already eliminated, I am content waiting and hoping that some type of U.S. weather story will develop in the next 120 days. From a spec perspective, I like the thought of buying back and banking any profits on short straddles or short premium sold and moving to the sideline. Remember, the decision not to trade is often one of the best trading decisions you can make. Wait for the right environment.