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Where are the signs of life for corn bulls?

Where are the signs of life for corn bulls?

Corn bulls like the fact that wheat is showing some signs of life and that U.S. weekly exports were strong despite increasingly heavy competition out of South America. Remember, the bears are increasingly talking about Brazilian corn coming into the U.S. via the East Coast and the fact that Brazilian corn is working its way into nations that have traditionally been big buyers of U.S. corn.

Lets also keep in mind that not only is Brazilian corn cheap, but Argentine corn might become much more attractive if conservative presidential candidate Mauricio Macri wins the "run-off" election in mid-November. It's actually Macri who is promising much more beneficial tax and tariff cuts to the Argentine crop producers. Thoughts are, if he gets elected and lifts the tariffs, we could see more heavy farm selling and more available corn in the global export space. There's also talk we could see more corn acres planted with the taxes being lifted.

The bears are also talking more about the Chinese halting U.S. DDG imports. The thought is this could backup supply here in the U.S. and put more pressure on ethanol margins and the nearby demand for corn, not ethanol.

Bottom line: Corn prices were around $3.80 per bushel in mid-August, around $3.80 per bushel in mid-September and again around $3.80 per bushel in October. There's just not a lot of momentum on either side. There might not be enough meat left on the bone to entice heavy sell-side interest, and the trade is still lacking consistent nearby bullish headlines to excite the event-driven crowd. Net-net, I still remain of the opinion that between now and year-end it will be extremely tough to breakout of the $3.50 to $4.10 range.


TAGS: Corn
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