With Friday morning’s monthly USDA supply/demand update expected to show only minor adjustments in 2012-2013 estimates, the grain and soybean trade will focus on the agency’s first monthly estimates for 2013-2014.
USDA has not updated its estimates for 2013-2014 since issuing preliminary forecasts at its annual Agricultural Outlook Forum in February.
The trade is expecting USDA to lower its forecast for next year’s U.S. corn carryout moderately from February, but still indicate a sharp increase in ending stocks versus this year due to larger production prospects.
USDA’s 2013-2014 soybean ending stocks estimate is expected to be down slightly from February, but still nearly double this year’s carryout on larger production. The wheat ending stocks forecast for 2013-2014 is seen up from February, but down about 10% from this year’s carryout on drought-reduced winter wheat production.
Trade estimates of the 2013-2014 U.S. corn carryout average 1.993 billion bushels in a range from 1.387 billion to 2.427 billion, according to a Reuters News Service survey of 21 analysts. That compares with USDA’s February forecast for a 2013-2014 carryout of 2.177 billion bushels. Expectations for the 2012-2013 corn carryout average 749 million bushels in a range from 684 million to 800 million compared with USDA’s April estimate of 757 million.
Pre-report expectations for the 2013-2014 U.S. soybean carryout average 236 million bushels in a range from 147 million to 325 million bushels compared with USDA’s February forecast of 250 million bushels. Expectations for the 2012-2013 soybean carryout average 123 million bushels, 2 million below USDA’s April estimate, in a range from 107 million to 130 million bushels.
Expectations for 2013-2014 U.S. wheat ending stocks average 658 million bushels in a range from 486 million to 800 million compared with USDA’s February projection of 639 million bushels. The trade consensus is that USDA will peg 2012-2013 wheat ending stocks at 733 million bushels, 2 million above its April estimate, with expectations ranging from 720 million to 747 million bushels.
Editor’s note: Richard Brock, Corn & Soybean Digest's marketing editor, is president of Brock Associates, a farm market advisory firm, and publisher of The Brock Report.