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USDA Seen Lowering 2013-2014 Corn Carryout


Wednesday morning’s monthly supply/demand update from USDA is expected to show a drop of nearly 200 million bushels in the projected U.S. corn carryout for 2013-2014 due to reduced production prospects.

Trade estimates of 2013-2014 U.S. corn ending stocks average 1.795 billion bushels in a range from 1.175 to 2.200 billion bushels compared with USDA’s May forecast of 2.004 billion bushels, according to a survey of 24 analysts by Reuters News Service.

There are ideas USDA could further lower its U.S. corn yield forecast, although it already lowered that estimate by 5.5 bu./acre in May to reflect slow planting progress. USDA is not likely to change its planted acreage estimate ahead of the release of its Crop Acreage Survey on June 28, although actual plantings seem certain to fall short of the March planting intentions estimate of 97.3 million acres.

Only minor changes are anticipated in USDA’s old-crop corn balance sheet. Trade estimates of the 2012-2013 U.S. corn carryout average 759 million bushels, dead on USDA’s May estimate, in a range from 684 million bushels to 919 million bushels.

Few changes are expected in USDA’s U.S. soybean supply/demand balance sheets for 2012-2013 or 2013-2014. Trade estimates of the old-crop soybean carryout average 121 million bushels in a range from 80 to 140 million versus USDA’s May estimate of 125 million bushels. Pre-report estimates of 2013-2014 soybean ending stocks average 268 million bushels, 3 million bushels above USDA’s May estimate, in a range from 185 to 344 million.

The slightly higher outlook for the 2013-2014 U.S. soybean carryout primarily reflects expectations for corn planting delays to boost U.S. soybean acreage. USDA should not lower its U.S. soybean yield due to slow planting progress, however, as the yield model being used by USDA economists this year does not include a planting progress variable. 

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