Kevin Van Trump, Founder

July 12, 2016

3 Min Read

Soybean traders were eager to see both new-crop and old-crop U.S. ending stock updates today by the USDA.

Soybean ending stocks for new-crop were projected at 290 million bushels, up +30 million from last month. Soybean old-crop ending stocks were projected at 350 million bushels, down -20 million from last month.  

There was obviously a lot of speculation and debate surrounding the export estimates but the numbers became a non event with no surprises. Also, of heavy interest will be export and production updates for South America.

Similar to corn and wheat, the USDA will be using the updated planted acreage estimates in their formulas, hence the thought of increased production, which was slightly higher being increased 80 million bushels.

The bears are quick to point out not only are we digesting a record number of acres planted here in the U.S., but also some of the best crop conditions in years. Just yesterday, the USDA bumped their crop-condition rating higher from 70 to 71 percent of the crop now rated "Good-to-Excellent," which is significantly higher than last year's record yielding crop of 48 bushels per acre.

Nobody was expecting the USDA to adjust their yield estimate higher in this report from the current 46.7, but if the weather continues to cooperate, the bears will continue to talk about a more acceptable looking balance sheet.

It was all about today's USDA numbers and the upcoming weather forecast for August. I continue to expect extreme volatility. Make certain you have a detailed plan in place so you are able to better execute when the markets are in high gear and your emotions are stirring.

As a spec, I still like the thought of being a buyer on a break to between $10 and $10.20 per bushel. As a producer, I'm keeping all remaining hedges in place and looking to reduce a bit more new-crop cash risk on a re-testing of the nearby highs.  

 

  • Missouri crop-conditons up +5% 

  • Illinois and North Carolina crop-conditons up +3%

  • Michigan, South Dakota and Wisconsin crop-conditons up +2%

  • Arkansas, Minnesota, Mississippi, Nebraska, Tennessee up +1%

  • Indiana, Iowa and Ohio "unchanged"

  • Louisiana and North Dakota crop-conditions down -2%

  • Kansas crop-conditions down -3%  

 

About the Author(s)

Kevin Van Trump

Founder, Farmdirection.com

Kevin is a leading expert in Agricultural marketing and analysis, he also produces an award-winning and world-recognized daily industry Ag wire called "The Van Trump Report." With over 20 years of experience trading professionally at the CME, CBOT and KCBOT, Kevin is able to 'connect-the-dots' and simplify the complex moving parts associated with today's markets in a thought provoking yet easy to read format. With thousands of daily readers in over 40 countries, Kevin has become a sought after source for market direction, timing and macro views associated with the agricultural world. Kevin is a top featured guest on many farm radio programs and business news channels here in the United States. He also speaks internationally to hedge fund managers and industry leading agricultural executives about current market conditions and 'black swan' forecasting. Kevin is currently the acting Chairman of Farm Direction, an international organization assembled to bring the finest and most current agricultural thoughts and strategies directly to the world's top producers. The markets have dramatically changed and Kevin is trying to redefine how those in the agricultural world can better manage their risk and better understand the adversity that lies ahead. 

Subscribe to receive top agriculture news
Be informed daily with these free e-newsletters

You May Also Like