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Soybean exports fuel bulls' fire


Soybean bulls were happy to finally see weekly new-crop export sales above 1.0 million metric tons, which I believe is the first time that's happened this entire season. It was reported that another new crop sale of 132,000 MT, to China, was booked today, to add more bullish sentiment. 

The bears however continue to point toward evidence that could prompt the USDA to reduce their current new-crop export estimate by some 100 million bushels. Remember, U.S. soybean export sales are down over 40% when compared to last year at this time.

As for U.S. weather, there's some concern about dry pockets developing over the next couple of weeks that could create some problems as the pods try and fill.  From what I can gather, most sources still seem to be targeting a 44 to 46 bushel national yield average.

As for harvested acres, it seems like the bulls have backpedaled a bit, with most now thinking the current USDA number will be reduced by around 1 million acres rather than the 2 million plus that were being discussed a few weeks back. Look for updated U.S. harvested acreage to be the major focus next week.  


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