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Soybean demand: Will USDA bullish news win out?

Soybean traders continue to heavily monitor U.S. weather and extremely strong Chinese demand.

The USDA announced Aug. 8 another new-crop sale to China, making it the ninth straight business day in a row.

There's been the concern about weather complications out in the eastern portion of the belt. primarily in states like Indiana (down another -1 percent) and Ohio (down another -6 percent), but that's been fairly well advertised.

I am starting to hear a bit more talk now from the bulls about areas out west where it could be a bit dry during the next couple of weeks. Hence negatively impacting the pod fill in various locations.

Many traders inside the market are looking for the USDA to raise their yield estimate by +0.5 to +1.5 bushels per acre, so this could end up being a bit of a curve-ball, especially with the USDA showing improved conditions this week in both Kansas and Nebraska.

States on the week showing improved conditions were: Kansas +3 percent; Arkansas, Illinois, Kentucky and Tennessee +2 percent; Nebraska +1 percent. States left "unchanged" were: Minnesota, Missouri, North Dakota, North Carolina and Wisconsin. States showing declining conditions were: Ohio -6 percent; Mississippi and South Dakota -3 percent; Iowa, Louisiana and Michigan -1 percent.

Overall as a nation the crop-conditions remained "unchanged" at a very strong 72 percent rated "Good-To-Excellent" vs. 63 percent last year, a crop that produced our current record yield. Blooming was reported at 92 percent vs. 86 percent last year vs. 88 percent on average. Setting Pods was reported at 69 percent vs. 65 percent last year vs. 61 percent on average.

I suspect all eyes now turn and focus on Friday's (Aug. 12) upcoming USDA report. The "yield adjustment" is obviously the biggest ticket item, but traders are also wanting to see how much the USDA will raise old-crop exports, old-crop domestic crush and Chinese imports.

Personally, I'm looking for the bearishness of a bump in yield to be offset by bullishness on the demand side of the equation.  


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