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South America weather needs to remain dry.

South America weather needs to remain dry.

Below is a brief summary I like to keep around as a reference to how things generally play out in South America. Obviously this is not an exact science, but it should provide you with a good overall reference of how things progress:

  • Early Sept - Full season corn start to be planted in Southern Brazil
  • Mid Sept - Earliest soybeans can be planted in Mato Grosso. Rains generally start firing up inCentral and Southern Brazil. Corn is starting to be planted in Northern Argentina.
  • Early Oct - Full season corn starts to be planted in Central Brazil & in Central Argentina. Wheat harvest is starting up in Brazil.
  • Mid / Late Oct - Soybean planting is under way in Brazil. Rainfall start to pick up in Brazil.
  • Early Nov - Most full season corn has been planted in Brazil. Wheat harvest generally ramps up in Argentina.
  • Mid Nov - Most full season corn will have been planted in Argentina (southern areas getting planted last). Soybean planting is rolling full steam in Argentina. Some early corn in Brazil actually starts to pollinate.
  • Early Dec - Corn pollination starts to happen in Brazil. Most all soybeans are planted in Brazil. Double crop beans following wheat in Argentina start to go in the ground.
  • Mid Dec - Corn pollination is underway in Argentina. Cotton planting is underway in Brazil.
  • Late Dec / Early Jan - Soybean flowering and pod filling starts taking place. Rains in Brazil start to fall almost 2-3 times each day. Wheat harvest in Argentina finishing up, second crop beans going in the ground.
  • Mid Jan / Early Feb - Soybeans and Corn start to be harvested in Brazil. Corn harvest in Argentina starting to roll.
  • Late Feb - Second crop in Brazil starts to be planted following early harvested corn and or beans.
  • Mar - Brazil's corn harvest complete and soybean harvest in full-swing. Massive lines at Brazilian ports waiting to unload. Generally the latest a good second-crop will be planted in Brazil. Argentine corn harvest in full-stride with soybean starting to reach maturity.
  • Apr / May - Main growing season for second-crop in Brazil. Corn harvest in Argentina is wrapping up, while soybean harvest is in full-swing.
  • Mid-Summer - Generally when second crop is harvested

Bottom-line, if you're hoping for a South American "weather rally," you need to be cheering for it to stay dry. This could cause producers to hold off on planting, as they prefer to wait on more rainfall. This obviously delays production of the crop and therefor limits the number of early bushels that will be available for exporters. If South American suppliers can't fulfill their early shipments, we could then see global buyers turn back to the US for a more guaranteed delivery. 

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