As for today I suspect last minute end-of-year position squaring and profit taking will be the theme in more light pre-hoiday trade volume. I wouldn't be surprised to see wild moves in both directions before the market finally comes to an end in 2012. Once we return on Wednesday it will be a whole new ballgame as traders prepare for the highly anticipated Jan 11th year-end USDA report. Keep in mind, after we get back, traders will only have 7-trading days until the USDA numbers are released, so I expect some serious volatility ahead of the data. Producers who have been accumulating big profits on their hedges as of late may want to consider banking a portion on a further break to the downside today.
I have hunch after we return there may be a little bounce to the upside as money-flow from the New Year makes a slight push. Don't confuse this with a major change in the long-term downward trend however. I am just thinking if you can bank some of your hedging profits now under the current tax rate and reestablish the positions on the next short-term bounce higher you will be money ahead.
Spec's can continue to look for opportunities to build longer-term bull spread positions in both corn and soy as I suspect the cash market will really tighten up come the late-Feb, Mar, Apr time frame.
Don't forget "First Notice Day" for January futures contracts are today, and the grain and soy markets will not re-open after today's close until 9:30am CST Wednesday morning.
To see exactly where we sit with our 2012 and 2013 cash sales, Click here
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Hope everyone has a safe and happy New Year!!!