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Market dynamics to push soybean prices higher

Market dynamics to push soybean prices higher

Soybean export demand remains strong, domestic crush margins are good and cash continues to be bid over. The bears have been telling the trade for several weeks that big Chinese "cancelations" are coming around the next corner, but so far it has only been rumor not fact.

The trade should get a better look at domestic demand following the release of next Tuesday's NOPA crush numbers. Most sources are looking for the crush numbers to be less than were last month and just a bit higher than last year. I suspect if there's actually a surprise it will be to the upside.

On a broader, more global scale, the bulls are starting to talk more aggressively about port and labor strikes in South America. From what I've heard, there's one already brewing in areas west of Mato Grosso. There's also talk of trucker angst in areas surrounding Santos. Insiders are also sighting, similar to last year, Argentine farmers being reluctant sellers of soybeans.

Bottom line: As I pointed out weeks ago, politics and logistics can often be more of an uncertainty in South America than actual production. As long as the world needs or is relying on South America for supplies, the trade could remain nervous. Not excited, but simply nervous and uneasy about fulfillment. This is a big reason why I'm remaining patient and sticking with just 40% of our new-crop production priced. I'm  just of the belief the HFT and Algo's are waiting on one good bullish story to drop then they are going to hammer the fundamental bears, providing them with another costly "learning experience." 

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TAGS: Soybeans
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