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Keep an Eye on the Soybean Market

Keep an Eye on the Soybean Market

Soybean bulls may have been a little disappointed by the NOPA crush data that was released yesterday at 137.08 million bushels. It was in line with many trade estimates, but was below what many of the bulls were hoping to see (above 140). I am starting to hear about more problems in Argentina and Brazil, especially in regards to soymeal, therefore I will continue to hold my long MAY13 vs. short JUL13 meal spreads. From my perspective, there may end up being some significant business switched back to the U.S. if the rumors turn out to be true. Both Argentina and Brazilian soymeal shipments are much less than last year. In fact they have yet to ship the EU even half of what they exported to them last year. Crush margins continue to be extremely poor. With continued logistical problems and poor margins in South America, I believe the "risk-to-reward" of being bull-spread old crop meal is currently worth the gamble.

New-crop soybeans remain an entirely different story. The bears continue to talk abut more beans acres going in the ground here in the US. There is also talk that "IF" corn prices drastically fall (say, sub-$4.50), South American producers will quickly shift heavy amounts of corn acres into soybeans. Lets not forget the trade has also been questioning Chinese soy demand. The H7N9 "bird flu" virus is certainly not helping matters either, as many in the trade speculate it is doing more damage to soy demand than the market has currently taken into account. Moral of the story, producers have to continue reducing risk on any new-crop beans rallies.

Follow my daily report to hear about my next cash sale recommendation.

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