Soybean bulls may have been a bit disappointed by this week's NOPA soybean crush numbers, but several insiders still believe the USDA's current crush estimate might be a bit soft. The numbers also make you believe the USDA's current soy oil ending stock estimate is a bit too high.
I should point out there's already talk circulating that this year's crop is producing better-yielding soybean oil and less-than-expected meal protein. We also have to take into account more alternatives floating around in our domestic feed marketplace with the Chinese uncertainty surrounding DDGs, milo, barley, etc. We also have the weather uncertainty surrounding India and Indonesia.
Bottom line: There's just a ton of moving parts right now in regard to the soybean meal and oil balance sheets. Lets also keep in mind the early uncertainness surrounding planting complications in key production areas in Brazil. Personally, I think it's a bit early to be jumping on a bullish bandwagon and I still see a ton of resistance up between $9.25 and $9.50. On the downside, there's some psychological support at $9.00, but more longer-term support thought to be down around $8.80.
As a producer I'm simply going to stay patient and hope some additional weather headlines can provide enough momentum to breakout to the upside. As a spec I still think the NOV15 contract has a better chance of seeing an $8.50 type print than it does something north of $10.00.