Corn prices continue to take one-step forward followed by two or perhaps three-steps backwards.
There's very little in the way of fresh new headlines. The weather for the most part seems to be cooperating. In fact several areas across the corn belt are forecast to receive another good round of rain during the next couple of weeks.
I suspect we could argue about eh heat in the Plains and the eastern and northeastern areas that will remain dry. But I doubt the pockets of poor production inside Indiana, Ohio and Michigan will be enough to offset or turn the bearish demeanor of the market.
Looking ahead, I hear that Informa will release their updated production estimate. Then we have weekly crop conditions when we come back Monday, then the highly anticipated August USDA supply and demand report out next Friday.
Most sources inside the trade are looking for an increased production estimate, i.e higher yield and a slight bump in demand, i.e. increased exports. From a technical perspective I still believe we are going to trade somewhere between $3.20 and $3.50 per bushel during the next two or three weeks. Personally I believe we should start to seeing a bit of longer-term "value buying" interest on a break sub-$3.20.
Bottom-line, demand might be strong, but as long as the headlines and the USDA continue to confirm the crop is getting larger and not smaller I suspect we will be fighting against this downward pulling vacuum.
As a producer I continue to stay extremely patient, keeping my hedges in place and have yet to re-own any previous cash-sales. As a spec, I am taking a similar approach with corn as I am wheat. I like the thought of being a buyer of long-term value on the deeper breaks in price.
I continue to look for an opportunity to enter my first bullish leg on break in price to between $3 and $3.20 per bushel. I'm almost certain I'm going to get my opportunity! How long the bears will keep me below water is the million dollar question?
Comparing The Record Yielding Year of 2014 to Today: I wanted to see the difference between crop conditions in each state during 2014, the year that produced the record yield of 171 bushels per acre, compared to the conditions currently in play.
I had the office do some research and the graphic they came up with below seems to best explain it. States in "green" are doing better this year at the end of July than the same state at the end of July back in 2014.
If the state is colored "red" it's because the crop conditions are worse today than they were back in 2014. I was surprised by a couple of states, I didn't think they were this much worse off.
Perhaps the yield isn't as big as some of the inside sources are wanting to forecast???