Kevin Van Trump, Founder

November 20, 2015

2 Min Read

Corn bears are pointing to what appears to be a mild forecasts for the U.S. winter. On the other hand, the bulls are talking about how lack of snowfall and moisture this winter could perhaps leave several key growing regions begging for water into early-spring planting.

As a producer, we have to hope winter weather headlines provide some temporary relief and short-covering type rally. There's just not a lot on the demand side of the equation that's going to excite the bulls. Ethanol margins remain suspect, corn exports are facing stiff competition from South America and Ukraine, and feed usage being more heavily questioned.

Unfortunately, with ample global supply, especially inside China, it's hard to imagine nearby corn prices breaking out of their current trading range of between $3.60 and $4.10 per bushel. I'm also worried that some areas are going to start seeing their basis premium more quickly erode. 

Make certain you are doing your homework and taking full-advantage of the steep jump in basis. This is not the environment to be pressing your luck and trying to squeeze those extra few pennies.  

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About the Author(s)

Kevin Van Trump

Founder, Farmdirection.com

Kevin is a leading expert in Agricultural marketing and analysis, he also produces an award-winning and world-recognized daily industry Ag wire called "The Van Trump Report." With over 20 years of experience trading professionally at the CME, CBOT and KCBOT, Kevin is able to 'connect-the-dots' and simplify the complex moving parts associated with today's markets in a thought provoking yet easy to read format. With thousands of daily readers in over 40 countries, Kevin has become a sought after source for market direction, timing and macro views associated with the agricultural world. Kevin is a top featured guest on many farm radio programs and business news channels here in the United States. He also speaks internationally to hedge fund managers and industry leading agricultural executives about current market conditions and 'black swan' forecasting. Kevin is currently the acting Chairman of Farm Direction, an international organization assembled to bring the finest and most current agricultural thoughts and strategies directly to the world's top producers. The markets have dramatically changed and Kevin is trying to redefine how those in the agricultural world can better manage their risk and better understand the adversity that lies ahead. 

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