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Corn's "risk to reward" potential

Corn's "risk to reward" potential

Corn continues to trade at the low end of the range on record global supply and improving U.S. yields. The only thing the bulls really have to talk about right now is U.S. corn becoming more competitive off the PNW. There's just not a lot in the nearby headlines to excite the event-driven crowd or fundamental bulls. Technically, I suspect we eventually push towards the $3.40 to $3.50 range before finding more stable ground. Some of the trade's most bearish believe we push even lower, perhaps down into the $3.20s before finding a bottom.

Either way, it's going to be tough sailing for the bulls during the next several weeks. Remember, there's no real change of production data by the USDA until the year-end report in January. Therefore, without a major weather story out of South America or some type of unforeseen bullish geopolitical event, I suspect the bears will simply remain up to bat and the cycle of lower-highs and lower-lows will continue. Structurally however, on a longer-term basis I continue to argue the downside is limited and the upside ultimately offers more "risk-to-reward" potential. Hence as a producer I want to remain patient, while as a spec I like the thought of building longer-term bullish strategies out into 2016 on the deeper price breaks.


TAGS: Corn
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