Farm Progress is part of the Informa Markets Division of Informa PLC

This site is operated by a business or businesses owned by Informa PLC and all copyright resides with them. Informa PLC's registered office is 5 Howick Place, London SW1P 1WG. Registered in England and Wales. Number 8860726.

Corn, Soybean Stocks Smaller Than Expected


Last week’s quarterly USDA Grain Stocks Report held bullish news for the corn and soybean markets as it pegged March 1 stocks of both crops below trade expectations.

The stocks figures indicate USDA will likely have to lower its already-tight estimates of 2010-2011 U.S. corn and soybean ending stocks further in April and could send prices for both commodities up sharply in the near term.

USDA pegged March 1 corn stocks at only 6.520 billion bushels, compared with trade estimates averaging 6.701 billion bushels in a range from 6.552 billion to 6.800 billion bushels.

The March 1 stocks figure is 1.174 billion bushels, or 15.3%, below the year-earlier stocks of 7.694 billion bushels and implies that first-half 2010-2011 corn disappearance was up 8.2% vs. 2009-2010.

USDA pegged March 1 soybean stocks at 1.250 billion bushels compared with pre-report estimates that averaged 1.295 billion bushels in a range from 1.266 billion to 1.366 billion bushels.

The March 1 soybean stocks are down 1.6% from the year-earlier level of 1.270 billion bushels and imply that first-half 2010-2011 soybean disappearance was slightly above 2009-2010.

USDA’s estimate of March 1 wheat stocks looks mildly bearish for wheat prices, but the wheat market may follow corn prices higher.

USDA pegged March 1 wheat stocks at 1.420 billion bushels compared with trade estimates averaging 1.399 billion bushels in a range from 1.285 billion to 1.488 billion.

The March 1 wheat stocks were up 64 million bushels, or 4.7%, from the year-earlier level of 1.356 billion bushels even though implied U.S. wheat disappearance for the first three quarters of 2010-2011 was up 14.5% from a year earlier due to strong exports.

The wheat stocks figure suggests USDA will have to raise its estimate of the 2010-2011 U.S. wheat carryout slightly again in April.


Editor’s note: Richard Brock, Corn & Soybean Digest's marketing editor, is president of Brock Associates, a farm market advisory firm, and publisher of The Brock Report.

TAGS: Management
Hide comments


  • Allowed HTML tags: <em> <strong> <blockquote> <br> <p>

Plain text

  • No HTML tags allowed.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.