Kevin Van Trump, Founder

March 8, 2016

1 Min Read

Soybean traders are talking about heavy technical resistance on the charts up around the $9 level vs. the NOV16 new-crop contract and just slightly lower vs. the old-crop contracts. The bulls are hoping rumors and talk that the commodity markets have bottomed and China is taking more active steps towards propping up their economy will be enough to push more bears to the sideline.

There's also some hopes that logistical complications inside Argentina and Brazil i.e. flooding, strikes, politics, etc. will be enough to bring Chinese buyers back to the U.S. for supply.

Unfortunately, I believe it's going to be tough to keep the upward momentum as more headlines circulate about record production eventually making its way out of Brazil and Argentina. It's worth noting that Brazil's harvest is thought to be 40-50% complete art this juncture.

As a producer, I continue to like the thought of reducing risk on the rallies. In other words "shoot while the ducks are in the air." Remember, the USDA is out with their monthly numbers this week, and while some insiders are looking for them to raise the soybean export estimate, most suspect they will lower domestic crush, resulting in a possible slight move higher for ending stocks.

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About the Author(s)

Kevin Van Trump

Founder, Farmdirection.com

Kevin is a leading expert in Agricultural marketing and analysis, he also produces an award-winning and world-recognized daily industry Ag wire called "The Van Trump Report." With over 20 years of experience trading professionally at the CME, CBOT and KCBOT, Kevin is able to 'connect-the-dots' and simplify the complex moving parts associated with today's markets in a thought provoking yet easy to read format. With thousands of daily readers in over 40 countries, Kevin has become a sought after source for market direction, timing and macro views associated with the agricultural world. Kevin is a top featured guest on many farm radio programs and business news channels here in the United States. He also speaks internationally to hedge fund managers and industry leading agricultural executives about current market conditions and 'black swan' forecasting. Kevin is currently the acting Chairman of Farm Direction, an international organization assembled to bring the finest and most current agricultural thoughts and strategies directly to the world's top producers. The markets have dramatically changed and Kevin is trying to redefine how those in the agricultural world can better manage their risk and better understand the adversity that lies ahead. 

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