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Can anything push soybean prices higher? Weather? WASDE? Exports?

Can anything push soybean prices higher? Weather? WASDE? Exports?

Soybean traders are talking about heavy technical resistance on the charts up around the $9 level vs. the NOV16 new-crop contract and just slightly lower vs. the old-crop contracts. The bulls are hoping rumors and talk that the commodity markets have bottomed and China is taking more active steps towards propping up their economy will be enough to push more bears to the sideline.

There's also some hopes that logistical complications inside Argentina and Brazil i.e. flooding, strikes, politics, etc. will be enough to bring Chinese buyers back to the U.S. for supply.

Unfortunately, I believe it's going to be tough to keep the upward momentum as more headlines circulate about record production eventually making its way out of Brazil and Argentina. It's worth noting that Brazil's harvest is thought to be 40-50% complete art this juncture.

As a producer, I continue to like the thought of reducing risk on the rallies. In other words "shoot while the ducks are in the air." Remember, the USDA is out with their monthly numbers this week, and while some insiders are looking for them to raise the soybean export estimate, most suspect they will lower domestic crush, resulting in a possible slight move higher for ending stocks.


TAGS: Soybeans
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