Kevin Van Trump, Founder

January 5, 2016

1 Min Read

Corn bulls are talking about the possibilities of the USDA actually lowering their current corn yield estimate in the upcoming year-end report, potential production problems in areas of  Brazil, and India now rumored to be looking to import corn from overseas for the first time in many years. Unfortunately, the bears are keeping a lid on most all rallies by continuing to question growth in U.S. demand and overall growth in Chinese demand.

Lets not forget, Brazil continues to surprise the trade as of late by exporting heavier doses of both ethanol and corn. We also have the headwinds being created by good weather in Argentina and the fact their leaders recently agreed to lift the 20% export tax that had been in place. Meaning we're seeing a wave of cheaper Argentine corn starting to hit the marketplace.

As a producer, I still believe we could see another leg lower in price, but doubt the trade makes many bold moves until it fully digests the USDA end-of-year data scheduled for release on January 12. I'm comfortable in having 30% of our estimated new-crop corn production priced, at what now appears to be great levels, and see no reason to be in a hurry to price more. Stay patient!

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About the Author(s)

Kevin Van Trump

Founder, Farmdirection.com

Kevin is a leading expert in Agricultural marketing and analysis, he also produces an award-winning and world-recognized daily industry Ag wire called "The Van Trump Report." With over 20 years of experience trading professionally at the CME, CBOT and KCBOT, Kevin is able to 'connect-the-dots' and simplify the complex moving parts associated with today's markets in a thought provoking yet easy to read format. With thousands of daily readers in over 40 countries, Kevin has become a sought after source for market direction, timing and macro views associated with the agricultural world. Kevin is a top featured guest on many farm radio programs and business news channels here in the United States. He also speaks internationally to hedge fund managers and industry leading agricultural executives about current market conditions and 'black swan' forecasting. Kevin is currently the acting Chairman of Farm Direction, an international organization assembled to bring the finest and most current agricultural thoughts and strategies directly to the world's top producers. The markets have dramatically changed and Kevin is trying to redefine how those in the agricultural world can better manage their risk and better understand the adversity that lies ahead. 

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