Kevin Van Trump, Founder

September 12, 2013

1 Min Read

Fertilizer costs continue to backpedal. In case you haven't been tracking, nitrogen prices are back at levels we haven't seen in 3-4 years. Urea, potash, anhydrous UAN, DAP, MAP all aggressively lower. Phosphorus is down but not down as significantly.

The question most producers are asking is how much lower will fertilizer prices go? In my opinion, there is still some room to the downside, but upside risk seems much more dangerous than downside potential. With this in mind, I believe we are quickly approaching an area where we need to be thinking about locking in our 2014 needs, especially in the case of nitrogens and phosphates. In fact, you may want to start making some calls and putting together bids ASAP.

With 2014 crop prices bringing along many unknowns, I hate like hell to let these good input prices slip away. Harvest pressure may prompt a further push to the downside, but lets not get overly greedy trying to pick the exact bottom. Be smart, if you haven't been tracking and or monitoring next year's fertilizer prices, then do so immediately. I think we are going to get a 30-45 day window were we need to be pulling the trigger.

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About the Author(s)

Kevin Van Trump

Founder, Farmdirection.com

Kevin is a leading expert in Agricultural marketing and analysis, he also produces an award-winning and world-recognized daily industry Ag wire called "The Van Trump Report." With over 20 years of experience trading professionally at the CME, CBOT and KCBOT, Kevin is able to 'connect-the-dots' and simplify the complex moving parts associated with today's markets in a thought provoking yet easy to read format. With thousands of daily readers in over 40 countries, Kevin has become a sought after source for market direction, timing and macro views associated with the agricultural world. Kevin is a top featured guest on many farm radio programs and business news channels here in the United States. He also speaks internationally to hedge fund managers and industry leading agricultural executives about current market conditions and 'black swan' forecasting. Kevin is currently the acting Chairman of Farm Direction, an international organization assembled to bring the finest and most current agricultural thoughts and strategies directly to the world's top producers. The markets have dramatically changed and Kevin is trying to redefine how those in the agricultural world can better manage their risk and better understand the adversity that lies ahead. 

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