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Are the cards stacked against the soybean market?

Are the cards stacked against the soybean market?

Soybean bulls continue to talk about wet conditions in southern Brazil and many parts of Argentina. Their argument is it could delay harvest and create a bit more interest for U.S supplies. Be careful buying into this belief. I think you would have to see the El Nino conditions really escalate, and we've been fooled by that scenario many times. I'm just personally not giving it much credence. It's somewhat sexy in theory, but it seems like a real stretch or perhaps last ditch effort by the bulls in regard to debating record South American production is coming down the pipe.

Here at home the trade is patiently waiting to see what happens with corn planting. If the corn doesn't get in the ground, more than likely it will equate to even more soybean acres. As I've mentioned the past several days, the trade seems extremely crowded on the bearish side, but rightfully so. There's a lot of talk of fresh new lows coming our direction very soon, but I suspect near-term the market will pause for a bit until more defined planting is identified.

As producers, the cards are certainly stacked against us, with very few bullish ones currently in the deck. From a marketing standpoint, I would like to have 60% of our new-crop price risk removed by June 1st, unfortunately this is starting to look like wishful thinking. I'm not going to give up hope; stick to the plan. I still believe there's plenty of time and weather uncertainty left to digest.  

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TAGS: Soybean
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