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After a rough week for soybeans, is the low price in?

After a rough week for soybeans, is the low price in?

Soybeans continue to trade toward the low end of their range. The bulls are talking about the possibility of an additional 1 million acre reduction in U.S. harvested acreage and that U.S. exports to China might be picking up out of both the Gulf and the PNW. There's also a bit more bullish talk about political concerns inside Argentine and the risk associated with their upcoming strike and protests scheduled during the next 45-days. Weekly U.S. soybean export sales were better than they have been, but sales are still running some -45% behind where they were at this point last year. 

As for U.S. production, the bulls are still questing the USDA's 46.9 bushel yield estimate and the 83.5 million harvested acres. I don't want to speak for everyone else, but I think a lot of folk feel as if the extremely wet conditions early on had a more negative impact on overall acreage and longer-term yield. 

Keep in mind, The National Weather Service just released their outlook for September and they are calling for below-normal temps across the Corn Belt, with above-normal precipitation expected across western Iowa and the Central Plains, including Nebraska. Equal chances of normal, below- and above-normal precip are expected in eastern Iowa to the East Coast. The forecast should increase concerns about crops that are lagging due to late planting. The soybean crop needs sunshine in September to maximize yield potential.

The Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour finished up last night and scouts released soybean production estimates for both Iowa and Minnesota. From what I understand they have Iowa estimated an average of 1,219.21 pods vs. 1,173.6 last year. Minnesota was estimated at 1,119.22 pods vs. 1,031.5 last year.  The USDA currently has Iowa estimated at a 52 bushel yield vs. 51.5 last year. Minnesota is estimated at a 48.0 bushel yield vs. 42.0 in 2014. In other words the USDA is probably really close on Iowa, but a bit overly optimistic with their Minnesota yield estimate.


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