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3 Factors pointing to less soybean acres

3 Factors pointing to less soybean acres

Soybean bulls are happy to see crop-conditions rated at just 67% "Good-to-Excellent" compared to 73% at this time last year. There is also more talk that 1.5 to 3 million soybean acres may go unplanted? This has the bears backpedaling a bit in regard to total soybean acres. Instead of 86 million, perhaps we end up with around 83.5 or 84  million acres. That's still near record high acreage, but the setbacks could help protect against a "worse case scenario" type downward push on prices closer to harvest. The bears continue to point towards too much supply in China and talk of the situation perhaps getting a bit worse before it gets better. Just remember, the supply and demand situation in China can change very quickly. In fact some of the bulls are arguing this might simply be a bit of a "seasonal" glitch in China right now, and the kinks might work themselves out sooner than some suspect. As a producers, I believe the best-of-practice is to remain patient and keep all hedges in place. Yes, there could be some upside movement as thoughts about acres are readjusted, but I'm just not sure we can sustain much of a longer-term upside rally without some type of more negative headlines out of South America...right now we just don't have that!                                          


 USDA Soybean Planting Clearly Behind Schedule: The USDA is now estimating that producers have 87% of the soybeans planted. Soybean crop conditions were actually lowered from 69% down to 67% "Good-to-Excellent". As you can see from the graphic below, Kansas and Missouri still remain well behind their traditional average pace of planting. Kansas is generally 85% planted by this date, whereas this year they are just 57% planted. Missouri would traditionally be 79% by this date, whereas this year they are just 42% planted. You have to imagine, combined both states have somewhere between 3.5 and 4.0 million soybean acres left to plant. Missouri obviously about double that which Kansas has remaining to plant. In total you have to suspect there's about 6.5 to 7.5 million acres across the main production states that are still "unplanted".   

TAGS: Soybeans
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