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Beef Outlook: A decade of data shows beef consumption waning outside of the U.S. and China.

Scott Brown

June 6, 2022

3 Min Read
teriyaki beef dish
BEEF EXPERIENCE: The U.S. and China continue to spotlight beef in everyday meals. Data from a decade ago versus today shows beef consumption in China has increased 78%. vaaseenaa/Getty Images

Amid all the recent market drivers affecting beef and cattle markets — the pandemic, drought, inflation and high feed costs — it is instructive from time to time to step back and look at longer-term global trends in meat consumption.

Using the supply and demand database from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, I considered the 12 largest markets in terms of domestic consumption for each of beef, pork and chicken. These markets comprise about 87% of global beef consumption, 94% of pork consumption and 76% of chicken consumption.

Looking at a two-year current time frame (2021-22, with the 2022 projections made by USDA in April), compared with a two-year time frame from 10 years ago, it’s not surprising — the results point to both major challenges and opportunities for U.S. cattle producers.

Who’s eating beef?

The U.S. and China are the top two markets in terms of both global beef and chicken consumption — with China being the top pork consumer and the European Union coming in at No. 2, pushing the U.S. down to the third-largest global pork consumer.

Total growth in the consumption of beef, pork and chicken in the U.S. and China outpaced the combined growth of the other 10 largest markets.

When looking at how U.S. meat consumption shifted in 10 years, all three meats posted growth, with the increase in chicken consumption accounting for nearly 58% of the total meat consumption increase. The growth in beef consumption made up nearly 17% of the increase.

Beef made up 78% of the increase in China’s meat consumption in the past decade, even though pork is still consumed at five times the rate of beef in the average diet in China.

Change in domestic meat usage in last 10 years chart

There is still uncertainty as to how future meat consumption in China will behave as the nation continues to recover from African swine fever, but with pork consumption already approaching pre-ASF levels this year, further ASF recovery is not expected to hamper beef consumption growth to any large extent.

Somewhat surprisingly, the combined next 10 largest beef markets after the U.S. and China decreased beef consumption relative to 10 years earlier.

Declines in the European Union, Brazil and Russia overshadowed growth in India. Many of these other top markets have been increasing pork and chicken consumption, while beef has declined or remained stagnant. In fact, the next 10 largest chicken markets have seen a 24% jump in chicken consumption in the 2021-22 average compared to 2011-12.

Quality over quantity

These aggregate calculations are a reminder that beef still faces stiff competition from other traditional proteins in many important global markets. They also point to dependence upon the U.S. domestic market and China for beef demand increases moving forward.

However, they do not capture the difference in demand movement between beef-quality tiers, a phenomenon that has continually shown itself in our domestic market as consumers have consistently switched to upper-Choice and Prime product at the expense of Select-graded beef.

If that trend continues here and in key overseas markets, the U.S. stands to gain from increases in quality beef demand, even if total beef consumption faces challenges.

Brown is a livestock economist with the University of Missouri. He grew up on a diversified farm in northwest Missouri.

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